Investing in Trump 2.0 Presidency: Nomura Survey Reveals Investor Expectations for Policies, Economies, and Global Markets
With the 2024 presidential election on the horizon, speculation is growing about the potential for a second Trump term. According to a recent note from Nomura, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently viewed as the slight frontrunner, but a Trump victory remains a strong possibility.
Nomura conducted a survey among its clients to gauge their expectations for a Trump 2.0 presidency and its impact on U.S. policies, economies, and global markets. The findings suggest that investors anticipate a more restrained approach to tariffs under Trump, with expectations for tax policy to continue along the lines of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
In terms of immigration policy, investors expect Trump to take strong action, with predictions of limitations on illegal immigration and potential deportations. Additionally, foreign policy could see significant shifts, including the possibility of the U.S. withdrawing from NATO and demands for allies to pay for defense protection.
The survey also highlights concerns about higher inflation, a larger fiscal deficit, and increased geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East, Russia, and Ukraine. Despite these risks, a majority of respondents anticipate higher GDP growth under Trump 2.0.
In conclusion, the potential outcomes of a second Trump term present a complex and multifaceted outlook for the U.S. economy and global relations. Investors should carefully consider these factors when making investment decisions in the lead-up to the 2024 election.
