By David Stanway
In a pivotal week of talks between U.S. climate envoy John Podesta and Chinese counterpart Liu Zhenmin in Beijing, the looming shadow of the upcoming November presidential election is expected to have a significant impact on the outcome, experts say.
Co-operation between the world's two largest greenhouse gas emitters has historically played a crucial role in shaping major climate agreements, such as the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, the potential re-election of former President Donald Trump poses a significant challenge to the negotiation process, making it difficult to secure fresh pledges.
According to Li Shuo, an expert in climate diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, "The election will make it very hard - in fact, impossible - for the two sides to reach any substantive agreement during Podesta's trip." He added, "There's just no reason why the China side will show its cards ahead of the election."
As Podesta prepares to land in Beijing, the United States is also seeking to urge China to commit to a new global climate finance package and set more ambitious 2035 goals before a U.N. deadline early next year.
Despite the uncertainties surrounding the election, experts suggest that China may need to factor in the entry of Kamala Harris into the equation, altering their strategic considerations in light of evolving U.S. political dynamics.
Tom Evans, senior policy adviser with the E3G climate think tank, highlighted the importance of pushing China to raise its ambitions, regardless of the election outcome. He stated, "Washington is said to be pushing Beijing to pledge an emissions cut of 30% by 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement."
Even in the event of a Trump victory, China may seize the opportunity to showcase leadership in climate action and differentiate itself from a potentially regressive U.S. stance, according to Evans.
However, Li warned that a Trump win would likely spell the end of meaningful two-way climate diplomacy, stating, "It will be very clear-cut: climate is just not an issue and there won't be any U.S.-China climate engagement from day one."
Analysis:
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election holds significant implications for global climate talks, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations. Investors should closely monitor the developments in Beijing this week, as they could impact future climate agreements and policies. Regardless of the election result, the push for increased climate ambition from major emitters like China remains crucial for addressing the pressing challenges of climate change. This underscores the interconnected nature of geopolitics, economics, and environmental issues, highlighting the need for cohesive and collaborative efforts on a global scale to combat climate change and safeguard our planet's future.
