Turkey's Annual Inflation Expected to Drop Below Central Bank's Policy Rate in September - Reuters Poll
As the world's best investment manager and financial market journalist, I bring you the latest insights on Turkey's inflation trends. According to a recent Reuters poll, Turkey's annual inflation is projected to decrease to 48.3% in September, down from 51.97% in August. This anticipated decline would mark the first time since 2021 that inflation falls below the central bank's policy rate.
The monthly inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.2%, with forecasts ranging from 2% to 2.8%. Despite a recent price hike for residential users in August, monthly inflation remained at 2.47%. The central bank has kept its main interest rate steady at 50% for the sixth consecutive month, emphasizing its vigilance towards inflation risks.
Bank of America predicts an initial rate cut in December, citing concerns over services inflation and the current level of monthly inflation. While the real sector is experiencing challenges, data suggests a soft landing rather than a hard one. The central bank aims to reduce inflation to 38% by the end of this year and 14% by next year.
The Reuters poll indicates that annual inflation is expected to reach 43% by year-end, slightly higher than the central bank's forecast. Looking ahead, inflation is projected to decrease to 25% by the end of 2025. The Turkish Statistical Institute will release September inflation data on October 3 at 0700 GMT.
In conclusion, understanding the dynamics of inflation in Turkey is crucial for investors and individuals alike. By staying informed about inflation trends and central bank policies, you can make more informed decisions about your finances and investments. Be proactive in monitoring economic developments to safeguard your financial well-being.
